19 games stand between us and the postseason. Just six weeks or so and the Washington Capitals will get a chance to turn things around from the same time last year, where they limped into the playoffs with a dismal goal differential and a patchwork roster after selling at the trade deadline. This time around, the team made just one small move and are looking to enter round one on top of the Eastern Conference and with sights set on the Stanley Cup.
Games played: 63
Record: 41-14-8
Standing: 1st in the Metro, 1st by points percentage
Goal leader: Alex Ovechkin (32)
Assist leader: Dylan Strome (44)
Mr. Clean: Rasmus Sandin (five penalties in 63 games at 19:02 TOI)
This is the first item here, but I’m writing it last, because I managed to forget that Ethen Frank only joined the team after the halfway point. It already feels like he’s been here all season, even with just 22 games under his belt in the NHL. His first call-up to the league seems like it’ll be the only one he needs, as the 27-year-old (his February birthday came just under a month after his debut) provided an instant boost to the team’s struggling third line. He notched an assist in his first game, a goal each in his second and third, and has settled into a point-every-three-games pace in just around 10 minutes per game. He’s got a better plus-minus than linemate Lars Eller, and his incredible speed (he’s literally the fastest guy in the league) has on its own created opportunities, points, and possessions where they wouldn’t have otherwise existed. He should be here to stay: head coach Spencer Carbery practically salivates when asked about his potential and has to stop himself before he gushes too much about the rookie.
In order to make room for Frank, Ivan Miroshnichenko had to be sent back down to the Hershey Bears. The freshly 21-year-old winger was only able to notch four points in his 18 games, but looked like he was starting to acclimate to the bigger and faster NHL game. Since returning to the Bears, he’s put up 16 points in 19 games and returned to a more regular role which should keep him ready until the Caps are ready to slot him back in.
It’s the day after the trade deadline, and Washington was content to not rock the boat. The only move they made was shipping a 2025 second-round pick (they still have Boston’s) to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Anthony Beauvillier (Tito or Beau for short). At 27 years old and on an expiring contract, he’s a solid pickup as a depth forward. He’s the only extra body the Caps have right now that isn’t a defenseman. His stats this season aren’t too remarkable, with 20 points in 63 games, and he’s been on five teams now in the last year and a half, but he showed potential in earlier years. If re-signed, it’s very possible that Spencer Carbery and co can help unlock that. He only makes $1.25 million this season, and if he’s willing to be a similarly low cap hit again, it might make sense to hold onto him. It’ll be interesting to see if and when he works his way into the lineup. My current feeling is that he won’t see the ice this season unless there’s an injury or Carbery gets frustrated with the third line again. With Ryan Leonard coming in next month, and the other move the Caps made that’ll be discussed in the next paragraph, I think Tito’s more here as insurance during the playoffs than a plug-and-play piece.
That other move involves fan favorite Jakub Vrána. V was waived by the Caps on the 5th and claimed by the Nashville Predators the next day, reuniting with Barry Trotz, his current GM and former head coach. Whether he’s a part of their organization or not come next season, Vrána has had a great redemption arc and showed in limited time this year that he still has a place in the NHL as an offensive spark plug. He shot an astounding 25% in his 26 games since rejoining the Capitals. While his defense still leaves a lot to be desired, his speed and talent on the other end, his drive to return to form after spending time in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program, and his Stanley Cup winning experience all translate to a bevy of wisdom to pass down to younger talent, all at just 29 years of age. Best of luck to Jake the Snake.
Looking at the team as it is right now, I understand why the front office was hesitant to make any splashy moves. Not only would you have to give up valuable players, picks, or prospects, but you risk tampering with the team’s outstanding chemistry. Morale is seemingly through the roof, and it’s shown in the on-ice production all season. This is a special team, and there’s no sense in chopping it up when it already looks poised to make a run and has a bright future ahead either way. In fact, they’ve already made two moves to lock down some expiring contracts before free agency.
Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren, the cheapest goalie tandem in the league and probably the best value-for-money tandem in league history, both got new deals. LT, 27, got six years and $35.1 million; Lindy, 31, got three years and $9 million. It’s become clear that Logan is the guy going forward, and he got a deal worth that. With a minimum ten games played, Thompson is sixth in goals-against per game (2.31), fifth in save percentage (.917), and second in goals saved above expected per game (.788). He’s one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season. Lindgren’s stats in the same categories are 25th in goals-against per game (2.66), 44th in save percentage (.896), and 42nd in goals saved above expected per game (-.04). Overall, he’s performing like one of the better backups in the league, and getting paid like it. The rotation is still holding close to 50/50, but that will almost assuredly change during the playoffs. If only playing your top-tier goalie about half the time means you still hover at the top of the league all season, you’ve done something right.
Let’s get into how the team performed during this last quarter or so of the season. Since the halfway point of the season, they’ve won 14 games and lost eight, four of which were in overtime. That’s 32 points earned out of a possible 44, a .727 points percentage, which just eclipses their .710 for the whole season. They went on a six-game winning streak, and also suffered their worst losing streak of the whole season so far (a whole three games). It was a bit of an ugly skid, coming after a weekend where they scored fifteen goals in two back-to-back games, but we as fans probably made more of it than it actually was. The team looked complacent, wasn’t playing effective offense or defense, and still would have been within one goal in two of those three if not for empty-netters running up the score. You don’t want to see them developing bad habits, especially not this close to the postseason, but they can afford to lose games and breathe a bit.
In those 22 games, they’ve averaged 3.545 goals per game, which on its own would be around third in the NHL in terms of team totals. It’s only a bit lower than their season average of 3.58. The offense is humming overall, even with those losses that were pretty low-scoring dragging it down. By my counts, which could be wrong, the Caps had 16 different goal scorers in those games, with 143 of them multi-time scorers and seven netting more than five. Ovechkin is still on a tear, but so are Tom Wilson, PL Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome, Connor McMichael, Aliaksei Protas. Even Ethen Frank has four goals in that span. The team is getting scoring from all four lines and the defensemen too. Despite quite a few games where it feels like nothing is gonna go for them, I still don’t doubt the ability of the Capitals to put numbers on the board. The team has the highest shooting percentage in the league at just over 13%. Protas and Wilson have cracked the 20% mark, Frank just barely dipped below it yesterday, and seven other skaters are over that 13% mark. I really don’t think this is one of those mirages that’s gonna drop back down to earth in the playoffs. This team just takes good shots and they consistently score more when they shoot more, regardless of opponent. That should continue in round one and beyond.
As far as the defense goes, it’s the same old same old. This isn’t a team built to be far out of the middle of the pack in stats like blocks, hits, takeaways, giveaways, things like that. With puck-handling and offensive leaning D-men like Chychrun and John Carlson, you’re gonna sacrifice some of those things (and I honestly have zero faith in how take- and giveaways are tracked, but that’s another story) in favor of higher point production. The defensive defensemen have been having a bit of a rough stretch recently, with guys like Rasmus Sandin and Martin Fehérváry having some particularly invisible or worse games in February. It might be down to the wear and tear of the season (both have taken some nasty pucks, sticks, and hits over the year) or having to spend more time defending when the team is having a bad game offensively, but I’m not putting too much stock in it. Those two have been great for much of the season, Sandin in particular, and they’ll step it back up when they’re needed most.
Quick look at special teams now. The Capitals currently sit at eleventh in power play percentage, converting 23.6% of their man advantage opportunities. They’re killing off penalties at an 81.7% clip, good for seventh in the league. They’re .1% out of being in the top ten in both and that is damn good. I was hoping that they would take fewer penalties in my half-season breakdown, and they seem to have responded, dropping from 12th to 15th in PIM. I still think they could drop even lower (they were 17th before the game yesterday), but I think we’re already where we’re gonna stay with that.
Last but not least, the injuries. Not much to report in this set of games, thankfully. Charlie Lindgren went on IR for a short time in mid-January, after an ugly collision in the net against the Canadiens. He returned after missing just three games, meaning call-up Hunter Shepard never had to take the ice. While he was out, Logan Thompson put up a shutout streak of just about 200 minutes, the third-longest in team history, so that bodes well for the playoffs if he takes the reins yet again. Sonny Milano has been on the long-term injured reserve since his upper-body injury suffered November 6, and finally shed his non-contact jersey on February 26, but soon stopped skating with the team at all. Comments from Carbery seem to indicate that he had some sort of a setback, and has no timeline for a return after it looked somewhat imminent. I wouldn’t be surprised at this point if he didn’t play for the rest of the season; even if he does, I’m not sure where he could slot in other than next to Beauvillier in the press box. As expected, TJ Oshie and Nicklas Bäckström are both remaining LTIRetired and won’t play again. Let’s hope the team can stay healthy from here on out and go into the playoffs full strength.
That was pretty short, huh? Not too many takeaways this time around from me. We’re at the point in the season where the playoffs are so close that they’re starting to be the focus more than the remaining regular season games, especially given that the Capitals are so likely to be first in the East even without playing their best hockey. Speaking of which, right now, their likeliest opponents in the first round are any one of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, New York Rangers, Detroit Red Wings, and Montréal Canadiens. The wild card race is tight, and might not be determined until the last games of the season, much like when the Caps squeaked in last season. As always, I’m eager to know your thoughts on the season and/or my analysis, either on Bluesky, Twitter, or in the comments here.
Key Matchups Review
January 18 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: W 4-1
January 21 @ Edmonton Oilers: W 3-2
February 1 vs. Winnipeg Jets: L 5-4 (OT)
February 4 vs. Florida Panthers: W 6-3
February 6 @ Philadelphia Flyers: W 4-3
February 22 @ Pittsburgh Penguins: W 8-3
February 23 vs. Edmonton Oilers: W 7-3
March 1 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: L 3-1
Key Matchups Ahead
Tuesday, March 18, 7 PM vs. Detroit Red Wings
Saturday, March 22, 5 PM vs. Florida Panthers
Tuesday, March 25, 8 PM @ Winnipeg Jets
Thursday, March 27, 7:30 PM @ Minnesota Wild
Wednesday, April 2, 7 PM @ Carolina Hurricanes
Thursday, April 10, 7:30 PM vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday, April 12, 12:30 PM @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Sunday, April 13, 6 PM vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
