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It’s the day after the 41-game mark, exactly halfway through this campaign.  Let’s see what’s new with the Washington Capitals.


Games played: 41

Record: 27-10-4

Standing: 1st in the Metro, 1st by points percentage

Goal leader: Alex Ovechkin (19)

Assist leader: Dylan Strome (33)

Mr. Clean: Taylor Raddysh (two penalties in 41 games at 13:05 TOI)


The biggest takeaway from the second quarter of the season, and really most of the season to date, is that the Capitals just aren’t playing good hockey against teams with bad records.  It’s a sure thing at this point that you can look at what should be either a scheduled win or a surprise “trap game” on the schedule and realize it’s going to be neither, it’s just gonna be a guaranteed tough slog.  Gone are the Caps that dropped seven on the heads of the Columbus Blue Jackets in early November; here are the Caps that let those same Blue Jackets take them to overtime tied 1-1.  For simplicity’s sake, I’m gonna define the teams that have below a .530 points percentage right now as the teams the Capitals should be able to beat.  It’s the halfway mark in the standings right now, and just as a point of reference, that’s a line that teams like the Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames are hovering around.  It feels like a good cutoff point to me.  Of those teams, these are the games the Capitals played against them.

MonthOpponentResultScore
OctoberPhiladelphia FlyersW4-1
OctoberPhiladelphia FlyersW6-3
OctoberNew York RangersW5-3
OctoberMontréal CanadiensW6-3
NovemberColumbus Blue JacketsW7-2
NovemberNashville PredatorsW3-2
NovemberPittsburgh PenguinsL4-2
NovemberSt. Louis BluesW8-1
NovemberUtah Hockey ClubW6-2
NovemberNew York IslandersW5-4 (OT)
DecemberSan Jose SharksL2-1 (OT)
DecemberMontréal CanadiensW4-2
DecemberColumbus Blue JacketsW2-1 (OT)
DecemberBuffalo SabresW4-2
DecemberChicago BlackhawksL3-2
DecemberDetroit Red WingsL4-2
JanuaryNew York RangersW7-4
JanuaryBuffalo SabresL4-3 (SO)

It might not look so terrible looking at it on the whole: their record in these games is 13-3-2, and they’re scoring well at almost 4.3 goals per game.  But the overall numbers don’t tell the whole story, and the story they tell with a closer look isn’t great either.  I think it’s pretty clear that the turning point was at the end of that November stretch, starting with the Islanders game.  Before that game, they were scoring over 5.2 goals per game and only allowing about 2.77, with an 8-1-0 record in those nine games.  Starting with that game, the scoring dropped to around 3.33 while they allowed the same amount as before, about 2.77 (not counting Buffalo’s shootout winner); their record was 5-2-2 in those nine.

The most interesting thing to me about that sudden shift is that it happened exactly when Alex Ovechkin broke his leg.  The injury came during the Utah game, which is the last one of that good first half, and they were without his services in the “easy” matchups until the Detroit game toward the end.  It’s certainly possible that the changes the team had to make in his absence contributed to their skid, although it doesn’t explain the other factors I’ll go into next and it certainly hasn’t changed, as they’ve gone 1-1-1 in the last three games on the list where he was 100%.

Another reason that I think is behind their woes as of late, not the biggest and one that every team has to deal with at some point, is being figured out.  When the Capitals welcomed the Islanders to Capital One Arena on November 29, they had played 22 games.  1320 minutes of tape on just this season and its changes, not to mention all of last year where the league got a chance to start picking apart the tendencies of players and new coach alike.  They’d been on the road, at home, against top and bottom teams, both goalies had close to a dozen games under their belts, power play and penalty kill units had gotten play.  There wasn’t much new to be figured out, and that could be a chunk of explanation as to how a team like the Islanders, who still haven’t eclipsed even 40 standings points and sit at seventh in goals per game at 2.65, were able to put up four goals all at even strength in just two periods.  If that is contributing to their struggles, it can’t just be opposing offenses getting wise, as they aren’t giving up more goals in these matchups.  It would mostly be on opposing defenses figuring out Washington’s offense.  It’s easier to stop a goal than it is to put one in, and these teams have figured out how to at least slow down the Caps’ scoring.  Dropping almost two and a half goals in scoring is alarming and can’t all be explained away by losing Alex Ovechkin, who’s been scoring at around .8 goals a game.  There’s a lot being left on the table with or without Ovi, and you have to figure that part of it is just being better studied and understood by every other team in the league.  It’s there when you look at the teams that crop up multiple times in that table.  The Flyers gave up more goals in the second meeting, but managed to triple their own total.  The Rangers likewise gave up more and also scored more.  The Canadiens brought Washington’s score down from 6 in the first meeting to a more manageable 4 the next time out.  The Blue Jackets had the best turnaround, from a 7-2 L to a 2-1 OT dogfight.  The Sabres are so far the only “bad” team to flip an L to a W against the Capitals, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again, even as soon as Friday against the Canadiens.  As the year goes on, expect the parity of the NHL to shine through, bolstered by fatigue, injury, and teams doing their homework.

The biggest factor that I’ve noticed, bigger than Ovechkin’s presence, bigger than opponent strategy, is that the team just doesn’t seem to give their best effort in these games.  They can play well, they have played well, they just…don’t.  They could have beaten the Sabres this week 8-2 if they played the best offense and defense they showed in that game for even a majority of the time, but they didn’t and don’t.  It’s like they save it for the teams toward the top of the standings and then think that gives them an excuse to take off the other games.  It’s most noticeable in the first period of these games, but it happens a lot in the second as well.  They don’t wake up until the third, and even then it can be spotty and, too often, too late.  They’re letting teams outshoot them, outposition them, stop them with ease, everything they want.  The Washington Capitals are two different teams, and which one you get can be pretty well predicted by looking at the record of the team they’re facing.  There’s the one that scores four, five, six goals with ease, up and down the lineup; the one that plays frustratingly good defense and refuses to let the opponents get a clean look or big breakaway toward their net.  There’s also the one that struggles to score one or two goals against teams that regularly let in four at a minimum; the one that gets caught looking at the backs of their assignments as they freely rush a helpless Caps netminder.  Until this team can realize that they can and should be that first team every time, they aren’t the best team in the league.  They’re getting beaten too often by clubs that shouldn’t beat them, and they’re struggling even when they do scrape by them.  It’s great to play the best teams hard, but you gotta play hard every night.  The Capitals have 26 more games coming up in their last 41 where they play teams currently in that sub-.530 range, which for any other team would be either cause for celebration or at least commiseration.  For them, it might just be the hardest road.

It’s already cropped up a few times in here, but it’s been great to see Alex Ovechkin make his return from a broken fibula.  Even better is seeing him come back like he never left.  He had 15 goals in 18 games pre-injury, and now since his return he’s put up four in seven.  Those nineteen total have him still leading the team, even with only 25 games to his credit vs. 41 for everyone else contending for the top spot.  No one in the entire NHL is on the level of Ovechkin’s goals per 60 minutes (2.59), and when you look at just even strength goals, the gap widens to an almost ludicrous degree.  He’s not taking a ton of shots to do it, and he’s throwing more hits than anyone else who’s scoring close to this much.  And he’s also 39 years old and in his 24th year of professional play.  What we’re witnessing should be treasured by all sports fans.  What LeBron James is doing at age 40 and year 22 is nothing short of amazing, and Ovi is doing it on ice skates.  We’re watching the greatest goal scorer of all time in the twilight of his career still making some of the best players in the world today look pedestrian.  It can’t be overstated, and if you haven’t been catching games, you need to start, if for no other reason than this.  There is one downside to his return, though, and it’s the kind of downside you accept and expect, but it’s still there, and that’s his defense.  He made a few eye-catching plays in the defensive zone early this year, but on the whole, that’s still just not what he does.  You can expect a bad turnover or a missed coverage every game at least, and recently, those have led to goals and near-goals for the other team.  It’s obviously too late in his career to expect any real change there, but I do hope he tightens his game up a little bit.  He’s shown he can, even at this stage, he just has to make the effort every time.

I mentioned earlier that the rest of the NHL is starting to figure out the top teams.  Partly due to that, and partly due to some uninspired play, head coach Spencer Carbery has been engaging in a lot of line tinkering.  Line shuffling is nothing new or unique, but it’s been interesting to watch with the Caps this season.  For a while it seemed as though the fourth line combo of Brandon Duhaime, Nic Dowd, and Taylor Raddysh was the closest thing the team had to set in stone.  That’s changed, though, with Taylor Raddysh finding himself all up and down the lines and names like Ivan Miroshnichenko and Andrew Mangiapane playing significant minutes on the bottom three.  The classic top line of Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome, and Alex Ovechkin obviously didn’t survive as Ovi went down.  Strome has centered a few different looking winger combos, including Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson, and Raddysh.  The most consistent line has been the second, almost always featuring Pierre-Luc Dubois centering Tom Wilson.  Most of their time has been spent with Connor McMichael or Aliaksei Protas, but there’s been times when Raddysh and Mangiapane found themselves up there, and all three of Wilson, McMichael, and Protas have been tried in the top line.  (The third line is enough of a whole thing to get its own paragraph next.)  It’s not an uncommon thing for a game to begin with the most normal lines and end up with crazy combos like Protas-Dowd-Ovechkin.  The most recent game against the Vancouver Canucks, due to illness, injury, and impatience (Carbery’s words), saw more moves, including moving Protas back to the top line.  The shuffling has been said to be due to searching for chemistry and production, but you have to wonder if that chemistry will only be unearthed when lines get more game time together instead of being jumbled on the fly.  I trust Carbery, but I’ll be happy when I see the same lines for at least a few games in a row again.

The third line is the single biggest issue with the lineup right now.  By my count, there’s been twelve or so different iterations that have been sent out as the third line for at least a couple shifts worth of game time this season.  The names that have been through the lines: Lars Eller, Andrew Mangiapane, Hendrix Lapierre, Jakub Vrána, Mike Sgarbossa, Taylor Raddysh, Ivan Miroshnichenko, Connor McMichael, Sonny Milano.  Of them, it seems that only the newest acquisition, Eller, is going to be a staple of it.  Mangiapane has moved up and down the lines, same with Raddysh, McMichael, and Miroshnichenko.  Milano has been on the injured list since November 6.  Lapierre was sent down to the AHL to get more playing time with the Hershey Bears, as was Sgarbossa, who was only ever a temporary addition to the roster.  Vrána and Miroshnichenko have settled into a dynamic similar to what Vrána had with Lapierre before his reassignment, where if the team needs more offensive firepower, Vrána draws in, and if his defensive lapses would outweigh his scoring potential, in comes Miro.  I have more to say about Miro, Lapierre, and McMichael specifically, but as for the third line as a whole, I honestly don’t know what to do with it.  The changes have resulted in varying degrees of effectiveness, and none feel permanent.  The Caps will likely be buyers at the trade deadline, and their biggest area of need is reliable scoring and defense from bottom-six forwards, but they need something to work now.  Carbery has tried a lot, and I’m sure there’s more coming.  Were it up to me, I might try sticking with a line of Vrána-Eller-Mangiapane for at least a few games in a row, but if Carbery is as concerned with Vrána’s defensive abilities as he makes himself out to be, I don’t know if he’ll ever be able to string consistent gameplay opportunities.  If/when this line finds consistency and scoring, don’t be surprised if the Caps have another surge similar to the way they started the season.

Ivan Miroshnichenko has been, to me, one of the more interesting stories to follow on the team.  He didn’t make the team out of camp, but came up in November to add to the team’s depth with Milano hurt.  After looking very much not ready for the NHL in his appearances last season, Miro has been showing tremendous improvement.  Seemingly due to his time spent on the fourth line with Dowd and Duhaime, getting a lot of really tough defensive and physical assignments, he has shown growth in just about every successive game he’s played.  He’s risen to the occasion with his physicality, offensive aggression, and defensive awareness, all in ways he couldn’t find a way to show in 2023-24.  He’s still only 20 years old and still a relatively very new addition to the league and the team, so it’s not surprising that he’s getting better, it’s just how much that’s impressing me.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he found himself on the team permanently at some point this year, even with Milano seemingly getting closer to returning.  Either way, he’ll be a part of this franchise for years to come, but the more time he spends in the major league, I think the more he’ll be able to contribute.

While Miro’s been up, Lapierre’s been down.  Hendrix was moved to the Bears on December 29, as a result of a lot of different factors.  Part of it was Vrána and Miroshnichenko playing good minutes while Lappy’s play was uninspiring, part of it was just no one on that third line being guaranteed good minutes coupled with the 22-year-old’s need for playing time to keep good habits up.  Lapierre was the MVP in the Bears’ postseason last year that culminated in winning the AHL’s championship, so he knows how to play winning hockey and produce.  He’s having issues with translating that into his NHL play, which isn’t all that surprising with the lack of consistency of his line (he’s played with six different linemates this season), his age and experience level, and the ebbs and flows of the team as a whole.  I don’t have much doubt that Lapierre will put it all together and become a full-time NHLer, but the question has to be if he’ll do it with this franchise.  His contract ends after this season, where he’ll be a restricted free agent.  The Capitals have Ryan Leonard coming into the fold later this year, and likely will add Andrew Cristall to the roster next season, so playing time will be hard to come by without a massive leap for Lapierre.  With the trade deadline of March 7 creeping closer and closer, you have to wonder if the Caps are thinking about trying to offload guys like the struggling Lapierre and Milano for a depth forward they can rely on a little more.  I’m not sure what return they would net, but the prospect pool is so deep that I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington was willing to give one up in return for a greater chance at immediate reward.

The other third-liner trying to find his way is Connor McMichael.  He started this season hot, scoring well and threatening Ovechkin’s spot at the top of the Caps’ goals leaderboard.  That all started to change, and weirdly, I think you can point to the same pivot point as I did earlier, the Alex Ovechkin injury.  Through that game, he had scored 12 goals in 18 games.  After that, he’s scored 5 in the last 23.  That’s an insane dropoff, and I think it’s threefold.  First, without Ovi to worry about, team defenses can look at the next highest scorer with a little more focus.  The fewer obvious threats a team has, the more you can attempt to neutralize those threats.  Secondly, it can’t be easy to continue your scoring habits when you’re being shuffled up and down the lines and you lose any sort of consistency in teammates.  You establish a rhythm and an unspoken understanding with your linemates and you can predict passes, see openings before they’re open, and overall play a more fluid and productive offensive game.  Without those things, you’re bound to struggle at least a little.  The final reason to me, which is brought about by the other two, is just a lack of confidence in his own game.  It was most apparent to me during the December 29 game against the Detroit Red Wings.  McMichael was all alone on a breakaway, and had several opportunities to send the puck at the net of Alex Lyon, but didn’t even attempt to shoot until he was already past the goal line.  He said of that shot, “I’ve got to capitalize on [that], and who knows if I put that one in, how the game could turn out.”  Not believing in your ability enough to take a wide open shot, and then having to reflect on how your missed opportunity contributed to a loss, it’s a mental cycle that can only be bad for a young player.  Spencer Carbery realized this, understood a change was needed, and shifted McMichael back to his natural position of center ahead of the January 4 game against the New York Rangers.  It seemed to spark something almost instantly.  Being the primary play driver gave McMichael an avenue to better utilize his speed and vision, as well as possessing the puck more and having more opportunities to shoot.  He ended up with a goal and a +1 in that game, and while he couldn’t produce a point in the loss to Buffalo, I thought it was a great decision and was worth sticking with for a while as Connor finds his game again and gets used to setting up guys like Lars Eller (who moved to the wing to accommodate the change) and whoever else he finds next to him.  Carbery didn’t seem to feel the same way, moving him back to the wing the very next game as part of the mini-shakeup, but don’t be surprised if that’s temporary and we see center McMichael again before long.

The only other struggle I think is worth a closer look so far this season is Dylan Strome.  Like McMichael, the loss of Ovechkin led to decreased production for the top line center. Before the injury, Strome had only gone without a point or assist in two games out of 18. After, he’s been held off the scoresheet in 11 of 23.  Again, you can point to not having a top scoring option, as well as a lack of consistency in linemates, but Strome more than McMichael has to be able to overcome those obstacles.  At 27 years old and in his seventh year as a full-time NHLer, this is the year in which Strome was looking to establish himself as a true 1C, and it was looking like that would be the case until he stopped having the best scorer ever to dish to.  He hasn’t been bad without Ovi, just relatively pedestrian.  Not even netting a secondary assist in almost half your games in any decently sized stretch isn’t acceptable for someone in his position.  Barring injury, he should have his most productive season yet this year regardless (45 points in 41 games, on pace for 90, with his highest total being 67 points in 82 games last year), but he has to be able to either find the net on his own with more consistency or be able to facilitate for whoever he finds on his wings.  Hopefully the time spent without Ovechkin illuminated that for him and the coaching staff, because it won’t be much longer before that’s a permanent reality.

The other forwards have been various shades of good.  Aliaksei Protas in particular is having a breakout year.  He’s far and away the team leader in plus-minus, second in points, and shooting at almost 25% with a good volume too.  Freshly 24 and on an incredibly team-friendly contract that only pays him $3,375,000 through 2029, his offensive awakening has been amazing for the team.  Tom Wilson has continued his return to form, fully recovered from his 2022 ACL tear now.  He’s second in goals, tied with Protas, and he’s been the same ol’ Willy outside of that.  He’s still physical, loud, tough as nails.  The future captain got his face broken and came back a few minutes later looking like an Ed, Edd, n Eddy character.  That’s just who he is.  Nic Dowd and his fourth line have been reliable as usual, taking a ton of defensive zone face-offs and shutting down production from some of the best scorers around the league while scoring some of their own.  Pierre-Luc Dubois has continued his quiet surge, creeping closer to 30 assists so far this season and making everyone he plays with better.  He battles for puck possession harder than anyone else, he hustles like crazy considering his 6’4″, 225+ lb. frame, and he has amazing vision when it comes to quickly developing lanes and openings.  It’s entirely possible this year is his best in terms of points so far, and even if it’s not, he’s found a new home in Washington where he’s properly utilized and appreciated.

As for the other end, there’s nothing much at all to complain about.  The defensemen have been excellent, particularly when it comes to providing offense.  They’re currently second in terms of point production by a team’s blueliners and don’t show any signs of slowing down, especially seeing Jakob Chychrun’s goal scoring and the assist power of John Carlson and Rasmus Sandin.  Chychrun is the eighth-highest defenseman in the league in terms of expected goals, and third in actual goals.  Carlson is in the top ten for assists.  As a whole, the Caps’ D is blocking the third most shots per game in the league, which I know isn’t always seen as a good stat because it means the other team is taking shots that need blocking, but in my book, a stop is a stop.  Martin Fehérváry has cracked the top 20 in total hits from a D-man this season, and he’s also in the top 20 for blocked shots, with Trevor van Riemsdyk right behind him and Carlson not far off either.  Not counting Dylan McIlrath, who isn’t a regular participant, only Jakob Chychrun represents the Caps in the top 100 defensemen by PIM, and he’s at least drawn 10 to help offset his 30.  Chychrun, Carlson, and Sandin all contribute to the Caps having a higher share of shot attempts than their opponents when they’re on the ice. TvR (and Alex Alexeyev, when active) are doing well in terms of expected goals against when they’re on the ice.  There’s a ton of other numbers that will show how good these guys are, but none are more impactful than just watching the games.  They have a great mix of offense and defense that have been working well at both ends even as all the pairs have seen numerous changes in this first half of the year.

The only other guys left to talk about are the netminders, and much like the team as a whole, it’s a tale of two goaltenders.  Logan Thompson is one of the very best the NHL has to offer this season.  He’s a solid fourth in the league in goals saved above expected and wins above replacement, around guys like Filip Gustavsson and Anaheim’s stellar duo of Lukas Dostal and John Gibson.  He’s in the top 20 in terms of average goals against.  Almost every game he plays in, he’s good for at least one highlight reel save.  He doesn’t make too many mistakes, but he is human.  His record at this halfway mark is 17-2-2, helping to grab 36 of the possible 42 points in those games.  Charlie Lindgren is a pretty good NHL goalie.  He’s 44th in goals saved above expected and wins above replacement, around guys like Semyon Varlamov and Justus Annunen.  He’s 35th in terms of average goals against.  Almost every game he plays in, he’s good for at least one highlight reel save and one lowlight reel miscue.  Whether it’s his unforced own-goal, his unforced own-assist, or letting in what should be the easiest stops you’ll ever see, he makes too many mistakes.  His record at this halfway mark is 10-8-2, helping to grab 22 of the possible 40 points in those games.  As expected, the two have almost identical numbers when it comes to what they face. They’re just about even in terms of shot attempts blocked by teammates and unblocked shot attempts faced. Logan saves slightly more low danger unblocked shot attempts than Charlie, slightly fewer medium danger ones, but way more high danger ones (85.7% vs. 66.1%, which is where the real difference lies numberwise.  It matches the eye test too.  Lindy lets in more easy ones and way more of the ones you want your top guy to be able to stop.  Even outside of his major errors, he’s just not shown that he can be a number one or even a 1B.  He’s decidedly a backup, a good backup, but a backup.  Despite this, I don’t see the tandem stopping their rotation any time soon.  At the earliest, I can see the team making a change and adding more to LT’s workload coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off break in mid-late February, and at the latest, I can see it waiting until the playoffs.  There’s almost a zero percent chance that they don’t lean heavily on LT in the postseason, but whether they start that earlier depends on how much they value him being fresh versus winning as many games as possible.

The penalty kill is still great, and the power play might be fixed.  After a very, very, very slow start, the Capitals have worked their way up into eleventh place in terms of power play percentage, hitting on about 23.5% of their man advantage opportunities.  Their new-look first unit consists of Ovechkin, Strome, Protas, Chychrun, and Carlson, and even though it’s gotten a limited sample size, it’s been converting extremely well.  As for the PK, no news is good news.  The Caps currently sit at fifth in penalty kill percentage, killing off around 83.5% of their opponents’ power plays.  If they could only take fewer penalties, that number could inch even higher.

The penalties still aren’t great.  Washington is 12th in the league by PIM count, not far from the midway mark, and they tend to spend almost nine minutes in the box per game. The negative penalty differential hurts more, sitting at 24th in that regard. If they drew more penalties, and overall played more heavily whistled games, it would be easier to overlook their objectively average penalty-taking habits.  Since they don’t, it becomes all the more frustrating when guys like Dowd, Wilson, Chychrun, Dubois, Eller, and Strome find themselves in the sin bin with alarming regularity for mostly either reckless or generally stupid things.  Chychrun and Eller should be looked at with some scrutiny, as they’re the only guys who haven’t played every game this year to spend over 20 minutes forced to think about their misdeeds, but it really seems that Wilson and most especially Dowd need to clean up their acts.  They always seem to take the most unnecessary penalties at the most inopportune times, especially the third period, and it’s even worse that both are penalty killers when they’re not the ones committing the penalty in the first place.  The team needs to find a little bit of discipline.  No team can take zero penalties, but bringing the number down just a bit will do a world of good for momentum and the penalty differential.

I think that’s it.  2024-25 is halfway done, there’s a lot of good to celebrate and a lot of not-so-good to think on, but overall it’s been a great season so far.  Below the fold will be the results of Q2’s key matchups I highlighted last time (spoiler: good things happened there), as well as a new set to look at between now and the three-quarter mark.  Thank you so much for reading, and I’d love to know your thoughts on the season so far and/or my analysis, either on Bluesky, Twitter, or in the comments here.


Key Matchups Review

November 25 @ Florida Panthers: W 4-1

November 30 @ New Jersey Devils: W 6-5

December 6 @ Toronto Maple Leafs: W 3-1

December 20 vs. Carolina Hurricanes: W 3-1

December 28 @ Toronto Maple Leafs: W 5-2

January 2 vs. Minnesota Wild: L 4-3 (SO)

January 4 vs. New York Rangers: W 7-4

Key Matchups Ahead

Saturday, January 18, 7 PM vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Tuesday, January 21, 9 PM @ Edmonton Oilers

Saturday, February 1, 7 PM vs. Winnipeg Jets

Tuesday, February 4, 7 PM vs. Florida Panthers

Thursday, February 6, 7 PM @ Philadelphia Flyers

Saturday, February 22, 3 PM @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Sunday, February 23, 1 PM vs. Edmonton Oilers

Saturday, March 1, 12:30 PM vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

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